With their candidate lagging in most of the major polls, Donald Trump's supporters are hoping the election holds a surprise akin to June's Brexit vote.
Goldman Sachs, though, believes the chances of a Nov. 8 surprise in the U.S. are remote.
The two races differ in several key ways, Goldman economist Alec Phillips said, diminishing the possibility of a repeat where polling incorrectly suggested that Britons would vote to stay in the European Union.
"We think the situation is different for two reasons. First, and most importantly, while both situations represented an opportunity for voters to endorse a change in the status quo, voters in the U.K. were asked to decide on an idea whereas in the U.S. they are being asked to decide on a person," Phillips said in a note to clients Wednesday. "Second, the polls are simply not as close in the current presidential contest as they were ahead of the U.K. referendum."
On the first point, Phillips obviously is correct. The second, though, isn't as clear.
True, some polls have showed a yawning gap between the two candidates. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the Hillary Clinton lead at 11 points, the last ABC tracking poll had the Democrat ahead by 8 and CNN has the advantage at 6 points.
However, the Real Clear Politics average of all major polls gives Clinton just a 4.4-point edge, and the Los Angeles Times' tracker even sees Trump with a 1-point lead.
By comparison, the final London Telegraph poll heading into the June 23 vote had the "remain" vote with a comfortable 4-point lead. Betting odds in the U.K. had given "remain" an 88 percent chance of prevailing, against the "leave" victory of 4 points.