This commentary originally appeared on The Hill.
When Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood, told GOP nominee Donald Trump from the podium of the Democratic National Convention in July that "women are gonna be the reason you're not elected to be president," she probably didn't forsee a sinking ship of this magnitude.
Trump's terrible October began Oct. 7, when an 11-year-old video from "Access Hollywood" came to light. In it, Trump describes his past sexual assaults of women: "I don't even wait."
This was followed by a line of women who have come forward, describing events where, they claim, Trump actually sexually assaulted them (Trump denies these stories are true). New York magazine lists over 20 allegations of Trump's mistreatment of women that have come out in the past month. And the list grows.
Add to all of that the three public debates where the public consensus seems to be that Clinton bested Trump, three out of three.
October was a terrible month for candidate Trump among women, one might think.
Few were shocked when an ABC/Washington Post poll, taken between Oct. 20 and Oct. 22 by Langer Research Associates, was released, trumpeting a headline that Clinton was now in advance of Trump by 12 percentage points nationally among likely voters.
That's what the poll — a snapshot in time — says.
But look at the movie, see where the action is, and a different picture emerges.
Comparing two ABC/Washington Post polls taken a month apart, Trump's disaster of October didn't occur among women, the majority of whom already supported Clinton.
Trump's disaster occurred among his base: men.
In the first poll taken Sept. 19-22 — before the "Access Hollywood" video came out — Trump was favored over Clinton by 19 points among all men, a huge advantage for Trump, which reflects the historical advantage Republicans have had with men in presidential elections.
But by the late October poll, the results had flipped. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton now leads Trump by 3 points in the same group — a swing of 22 points — roughly equivalent to one in five men ending their support for Trump during the past month.
That's a huge swing. One might expect that there is a similarly large swing among women; perhaps larger. But there isn't.
In September, women favored Clinton over Trump by 19 points; come October, that advantage did not measurably increase. A mere 1 point changed — It's now 20 points — minuscule in comparison to the 22-point swing among men.
The impact was greatest among white men without a college degree. These men are supposed to be Trump's base — and indeed, they still are the largest single demographic that supports Trump, according to the October poll.
But comparing the September and October polls, one sees Trump's base is abandoning him.
In September, Trump enjoyed being 59-point favorite over Clinton among this demographic, but by October, this lead had shrunk to only 31 points — a change equivalent to Trump losing support of one in four white blue-collar men in October.
That's an abandonment. That's an evaporation.