Should stocks rally after the presidential election, the U.S. may see enough gains to become one of the best-performing developed markets in the world.
All major U.S. indexes closed higher Monday on the back of FBI Director James Comey's announcement that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would not face criminal charges after a probe into new emails. An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Monday morning found Clinton with a 6-point lead over Republican Donald Trump.
Year to date, the U.S. is a laggard by international MSCI market index measurements; the MSCI U.S. index is up 1.9 percent year to date, far behind those of Canada, New Zealand, the U.K. and Hong Kong, which have rallied 11.2 percent, 9.5 percent, 7.1 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
Markets in some of the best international performers, including Canada, New Zealand and Australia, have gained on the back of commodities' stabilization, but those rallies could soon end, according to strategist Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, as OPEC fails to address the oil supply glut.
"The U.S., on the other hand, really looks poised to rally on the back of a Clinton victory," Sanchez said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
"We have seen the markets price in the next Fed hike pretty well; I think we could get past that pretty easily, and we're seeing earnings continue to show some improvement. And all of those things could actually stack up against that bear story I just told you, to bring the U.S. back to the top," Sanchez said, referring to comments she made about issues facing markets abroad in the face of an oil glut.
The MSCI U.S. index, broadly measuring U.S. stock performance, has paled in comparison to that of Hong Kong's, which is up 6.7 since the beginning of the year. And the Hang Seng index, which measures large-cap stocks in the territory, could benefit even more so than the U.S. should stocks rally out of the election, according to Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI.
That's because, according to Ross, the strength of the U.S. economy "is almost a double-edged sword by virtue of the fact that if we get this sort of global risk-on rally, if you will, that some of these more highly concentrated markets might stand to benefit more on a percentage basis," Ross said Monday on "Trading Nation."
Ross said the Hang Seng, relatively dominated by large-cap stocks like HSBC and Chinese holding company Tencent, might be one market to see even more gains than the S&P 500 in the case of such a global rally because of the concentration of its constituents.