On Monday, the world's second-largest economy issued a ruling on a case involving pro-independence elected Hong Kong lawmakers—a move that pre-empted local courts and called into question rule of law in the city, a special administrative region (SAR) of China.
Beijing's intervention in Hong Kong "signals the likelihood of elevated tensions with Taiwan in coming months," Eurasia analysts flagged in a note this week. Ahead of a key leadership transition in the Chinese Communist Party next year, "China's top leaders cannot afford to be seen as weak on matters considered core interests for the party, including Hong Kong and Taiwan," the note continued.
And Taipei's bold support for the SAR is likely to exacerbate already-tense China-Taiwan relations.
Five months ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration cut off official communication with Tsai's administration for her failure to adhere to a principle that Beijing considers crucial to cross-strait tries.
Tsai has yet to acknowledge the "One China" policy under a framework called the "1992 Consensus," which Beijing claims is a tacit understanding reached between the two governments that acknowledged there was only one China. However, the contract also stipulates that the mainland and Taiwan could have their own interpretation of what 'One China' meant.
But in contrast to Eurasia's views, some believe it may not be in Beijing's interests to intensify the quarrel with Taipei.
Unlike the SAR, Taiwan maintains a separate ruling authority, explained Katherine Hui-Yi Tseng, research associate at the National University of Singapore. "It will be unwise for Beijing to explicitly suggest that its treatment of HK will be equally applied to Taiwan."