Sorry investors, but the S&P probably won’t make more record highs this year: Strategist

While the Dow has hit a new record high in the so-called "Trump rally," the S&P 500 has fallen short of doing so, and some say market watchers say it's unlikely to do so before next year.

The S&P 500 has rallied since Election Day, driven by financials, consumer discretionary and energy stocks, in a rise that has brought the index just 0.5 percent away from its record highs. However, Chantico Global founder Gina Sanchez believes the market rally is running out of steam and the S&P 500 won't manage to overtake the 2,193.81 record level it hit in August.

"There's still too much uncertainty left in the market," Sanchez said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "While there was definitely a response after the election just to finally get it done and over with, I think that that response is largely done. From now until the end of the year, the market is going to be looking for clues as to what's happening going forward."

Sanchez forecasts a 1.8 to 2 percent growth rate under a Trump presidency, which in her eyes is not particularly stellar. This leads Sanchez to conclude that the market isn't "rallying with any real direction yet."

In fact, the S&P 500 slightly reversed its gains on Wednesday after a week-long climb that saw the index rally about 1.7 percent since the Nov. 8 election. This gave investors some hope after a strong summer, during which the S&P 500 hit record highs, faded into an uncertainty-filled autumn as the election approached.

While Matt Maley, trader at Miller Tabak, also believes that the Trump rally has more or less ran its course, he does see "some potential" for the S&P to hit record highs before year-end. Much of it lies within the S&P 500's charts for the past week.

"When you usually get a big spike like this week, the market pulls back a little bit to consolidate," said Maley. "But so far, we've only really had a bit of a sideways consolidation."

"If it starts to creep further up from here, and if the bond market finally bounces a little bit and rates pull back to get people to calm down a little bit, that could give us an impetus to the upside," he added.

According to Maley, if investors believe that the market looks like it's about to break out, "[investors are] going to go with it no matter what they think might happen in a Trump presidency."

In other words, investors could choose to focus more on what the market could do in the next few weeks than in the next few years — leading to a momentum chase.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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