Economics of an OPEC deal make a lot of sense, says Goldman's Jeff Currie

Currie: Odds of OPEC production cut are higher

Not only will OPEC reach a deal this month, but Goldman Sachs' global head of commodities research said the cartel will have to "take it to conclusion" once the process starts.

OPEC members and noncartel producers have been working on an agreement to freeze oil production increases and reduce ouput. In September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it would look to cut production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day.

Jeff Currie told CNBC's "Halftime Report" on Monday that OPEC is now less likely to "fight a losing battle like they were before in the sense that we have in the line of sight the ability for this market to rebalance itself." In particular, he said a cyclically stronger demand backdrop will contribute to near-term upside from a potential OPEC production cut.

In order for producers to issue equity and debt, Currie said they need low volatility, which they can achieve by lowering inventories away from capacity. He said they will also want to achieve "backwardation," a situation where spot prices trade above those of futures contracts.

If near-term oil prices hit $55 a barrel while contracts further from expiration trade near $45, that will prevent U.S. exploration and production companies from hedging forward contracts, which would have allowed them to produce more and encroach on OPEC market share. Currie explained that if the market is in backwardation, it takes away that advantage from U.S. producers.

— CNBC's Patricia Martell contributed to this report.