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OPEC likely to strike deal this time on Trump win: Analyst

Donald Trump's victory in the recent U.S. presidential election is likely to spur OPEC into action at its policy meeting next week,analysts said Monday.

"The Trump victory and significant downward pressure on the oil price over the last couple of weeks will draw OPEC back together," said UBS' commodities and FX strategist, Wayne Gordon.

Dollar-denominated crude oil prices have been under pressure since Trump's win pushed up the greenback amid talk of infighting within the oil group. As major oil benchmarks are priced in dollars, a stronger greenback typically makes it more expensive to buy oil.

U.S. crude oil futures fell as much as 4 percent immediately following Trump's surprise win to a two-month low near $43 a barrel. They have moved in the $43-$46 a barrel range since then, down from around $50 a barrel for much of October.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 1.3 percent to trade around $46.27 a barrel on Monday afternoon in Asia while European Brent was also up 1.4 percent at $47.50 a barrel.

OPEC members agreed at a September meeting in Algiers that they would work on an agreement to cut production to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels a day. The group produced more than 33.6 million barrels a day in October.

OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
Patti Domm | CNBC
OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria.

They left the details of how the cuts would be shared for the Nov. 30 meeting of OPEC oil ministers.

While there has been skepticism over whether OPEC will finally come to an agreement at its meeting in Vienna this week, watchers say the group may deal for real this time.

"We think they'll come up with some agreement …This time round, we think the impetus to doing a deal is much stronger," said Gordon.

This is particularly as President-elect Trump has threatened during the presidential campaign to rip up the deal Iran reached with international negotiators last year to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Although Trump is unlikely to significantly change it without European cooperation, his rhetoric could potentially slow investment going into Iran, a large OPEC oil producer. This could lift oil prices significantly in the next 12 to 18 months, Gordon said.

Standard Chartered's chief investment strategist Steve Brice also expects an OPEC deal that will push the world into a sustained supply deficit, boosting oil prices.

Brice expects oil to rise 30 to 40 percent to $60 to $65 a barrel toward end-2017 if the dollar doesn't rise dramatically.

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