Market Insider

One thing that could keep traders at their desks Wednesday after another record day

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Minutes of the last Fed meeting may keep a few traders at their desks until midafternoon Wednesday before they bolt for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Major stock indexes rose to new highs for a second day Tuesday, in a rally traders say should see more follow-through. The Dow closed above 19,000 for the first time, rising 67 points to 19,023. The breached 2,200, closing at 2,202, a gain of 4 points. The Nasdaq was up 17 points at 5,386, and even the Russell 2000 pushed higher — for a 13th day — to a new high of 1,334.

"We've got a week's worth of data in one day," said Tom Simons, chief money market economist at Jefferies. "The one I'm most interested in is University of Michigan consumer sentiment. That had been pretty decent in recent months, and when they talked about the details they showed most of the improvement in the outlook was in the higher income families."

Simons said those high-income consumers largely supported Hillary Clinton. Simons said he now wants to see if there's a negative reaction or not to the election outcome.

The surprise win by Donald Trump has given liftoff to a stock market rally that has particularly favored stocks that will do well with his proposed fiscal stimulus program, tax cuts and higher interest rate world.

The Fed minutes should be anticlimactic after recent comments from Fed officials, who are pointing to a December rate hike at every opportunity. The Fed funds futures shows the odds for a December rate hike are at 100 percent.

"You get the minutes at 2 o'clock for whoever is left. They made it pretty clear in November that we were close to a hike, and I think [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen sealed the deal when she went before the [Joint Economic Committee] saying the election didn't have an impact on the outlook," Simons said.

Other data Wednesday includes durable goods and weekly claims at 8:30 a.m., FHFA home prices at 9 a.m. and manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. Consumer sentiment and new home sales are released at 10 a.m. There is also a $28 billion 7-year note auction at 11:30 a.m.

In Tuesday's trading, the S&P consumer discretionary and industrial sectors both reached new highs. The financials and energy sectors were at the highs of the year.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures slipped 21 cents to $48.03 per barrel as markets await a deal from OPEC on production.

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said the stock market lost ground when oil temporarily fell under $48, but it recovered. He said the positive move for stocks at this time of year bodes well for a higher move into year end.

"You have this Trump honeymoon for a month, a month and a half — as long as he doesn't make some crazy cabinet appointment," said Cashin.

Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer, said the market shows good technical signs of strength.

"The underlying factors are indicating this is strength that should continue rather than reverse. Yes, we are at an all-time high, we're making those highs in the type of manner that would suggest a resumption of the indexes' longer-term advance. So the call here is to stick with it. Markets tend to ebb and flow. It won't be a straight line higher," he said. "You do tend to see the pace of advance moderate a bit when the Fed raises rates."

Besides data, there are a few companies reporting earnings, including Deere and Trina Solar.