Here’s when we’ll see Dow 20,000, according to one chart expert

With "Dow 19,000" in the books, some say Dow 20,000 might not be far behind.

The Dow Jones industrial average broke through the 19,000 level for the first time Tuesday after closing higher in all but two sessions since the election.

"Risk is coming back to the market after really, how we see it, a two-year decline favoring risk-off trades. So we think the bull market's continuing," Ari Wald, Oppenheimer's head of technical analysis, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

Wald sees the index hitting 20,000 in the first half of 2017. This would mark an accelerated pace for round numbers, given that the Dow first hit 18,000 in December 2014.

Not only is the index breaking out, said Wald, but it's breaking out "with the right leadership."

"This is very classic bull-market behavior. When the Fed starts to tighten interest rates, you have your mid-cycle correction — that's what we've had over the last year, the very wide gyrations — and now we're breaking out to the upside."

If all 30 stocks in the Dow rose to analysts' median price targets, the Dow would be trading at about 20,065. Based on FactSet price target data, Apple would contribute the most gains to the Dow in that scenario, followed by Home Depot and Visa.

The Dow is a price-weighted index, unlike the market-cap weighted S&P 500, meaning that stocks with higher dollar values have more prominence. That gives Goldman Sachs, the most expensive stock by share price, a much greater effect on the index than the performance of Cisco, the cheapest name by share price.

Caterpillar, Chevron and Goldman Sachs are three names to play at these loftier levels, Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money."

"Traders like three things. They like higher yield, higher volatility and fleece vests. This is a great way to get all three; those are three stocks to play the move higher in the Dow."


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Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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