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Here’s when we’ll see Dow 20,000, according to one chart expert

With "Dow 19,000" in the books, some say Dow 20,000 might not be far behind.

The Dow Jones industrial average broke through the 19,000 level for the first time Tuesday after closing higher in all but two sessions since the election.

"Risk is coming back to the market after really, how we see it, a two-year decline favoring risk-off trades. So we think the bull market's continuing," Ari Wald, Oppenheimer's head of technical analysis, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

Wald sees the index hitting 20,000 in the first half of 2017. This would mark an accelerated pace for round numbers, given that the Dow first hit 18,000 in December 2014.

Not only is the index breaking out, said Wald, but it's breaking out "with the right leadership."

"This is very classic bull-market behavior. When the Fed starts to tighten interest rates, you have your mid-cycle correction — that's what we've had over the last year, the very wide gyrations — and now we're breaking out to the upside."


If all 30 stocks in the Dow rose to analysts' median price targets, the Dow would be trading at about 20,065. Based on FactSet price target data, Apple would contribute the most gains to the Dow in that scenario, followed by Home Depot and Visa.

The Dow is a price-weighted index, unlike the market-cap weighted S&P 500, meaning that stocks with higher dollar values have more prominence. That gives Goldman Sachs, the most expensive stock by share price, a much greater effect on the index than the performance of Cisco, the cheapest name by share price.

Caterpillar, Chevron and Goldman Sachs are three names to play at these loftier levels, Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money."

"Traders like three things. They like higher yield, higher volatility and fleece vests. This is a great way to get all three; those are three stocks to play the move higher in the Dow."


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Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network's longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program "Trading Nation." He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and other NBC properties.

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