Oil and Gas

With Trump looming, ‘no way’ Iran agrees to OPEC production cuts in November: Kilduff

Options activity heightens ahead of OPEC meeting: Pro
Options activity heightens ahead of OPEC meeting: Pro

Iran will be resistant to any agreement to cut production at November's OPEC meeting, Again Capital's John Kilduff told CNBC on Wednesday.

"There's just no way the Iranians are going to agree to this," Kilduff said. "I think they see a horizon, potentially, where their oil production and exports get disrupted again by the new Trump administration, … so why would they agree to any sort of cut at all right now?"

Despite energy markets seeing higher volumes of trades that mostly bet on oil prices rising, Kilduff told "Worldwide Exchange" that Iran is actually in a position to ride out its production glut.

The analyst said Iran could be holding out on rival Saudi Arabia, as the Saudis become increasingly desperate for higher prices.

"Their desperation front and center, and to a degree, the Iranians are actually using this potentially to undermine the kingdom even more," Kilduff said.

But Saudi Arabia has been known for taking strong measures to get its way before, and if Iran continues to hold out on cutting production, Kilduff said there could be a repeat.

"The outlier, worst case scenario for oil producers is if … the Saudis get their patience completely tried and blown and they go to a production level that is even higher than it is now," he said.

Kilduff recalled the kingdom acting similarly in 1993, when it instigated a battle for market share, forcing other oil giants to raise production. That sent prices crashing.

One oil cut is not enough: Expert
One oil cut is not enough: Expert

Clearview Energy's Jacques Rousseau told CNBC he does not think Saudi Arabia will have a very difficult time initiating a cut.

Instead, Rousseau voiced his worry that one production cut would not be enough to raise oil prices.

"We think this cut is not going to be enough to bring up oil prices," Rousseau told "Squawk Box." "We think this cut, at best, is going to balance global oil supply and demand."

Rousseau said an area of concern and major overflow is in oil producers' inventories, and that may have to be solved by a second production cut early next year.

But the tired caveat remains: "They do not have a great track record of adhering to production cuts," Rousseau said.