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Pro Analysis

Breakingviews: Trump can make or break global growth hopes

Donald Trump
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Donald Trump

Donald Trump has the power to make or break a revival in world growth. That's the upshot of the latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The club of well-off nations reckons the U.S. president-elect's plans could help lift global GDP growth to 3.6 percent in 2018. The problem is that his threats of protectionism risk cancelling out the benefits.

While Trump's inauguration is less than two months away, any assumptions about what the former reality-TV star will do once he is in the Oval Office involves guesswork. That didn't prevent the OECD from trying to factor his plans into its projections. It reckons that reforms to personal and corporate taxes, combined with extra government spending, could add 1.75 percentage points to American GDP by 2018. Add ongoing fiscal stimulus in China, and a modest boost to spending in Europe, and global economic growth could return to levels not seen since the beginning of the decade.