The Trump trade is cooling off — and that's great news for one group of stocks.
The emerging markets ETF, the EEM, extended gains Monday after snapping a four week post-election losing streak on Friday. According to one technician, the counter-Trump rally could continue — at least for now.
"From a trading basis, we think the EEM rallies towards $40 over the coming months," Oppenheimer's Ari Wald said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." That's a nearly 13 percent rally from where it is currently trading and puts the EEM at its highest level since June 2015.
The ETF has gotten beaten up since the election, falling more than 5 percent, weighed down by the strong dollar and jitters over what Donald Trump's trade policies could mean for the space. The move comes amid a record rally in U.S. equities, with the S&P and Dow both up more than 3 percent in the same period.
Still, the EEM is outperforming U.S. equities year to date — up 10 percent while the S&P 500 has risen 8 percent in the same period — leading the ETF to breach what Wald notes on the chart as a two-year down trend. That breakout combined with what Wald anticipates as risk entering the market, leads him to believe the ETF will run back to 52-week highs.
But the key to investing is to know what you own, and Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer of S&P Global, points out that making a bet on the EEM is essentially wagering on China, which could prove dangerous given the volatility in its currency and stock market.
"The EEM has been weighed down by the underperformance of emerging country performance in Asia, which accounts for over 70 percent of the ETF," she explained Monday in a "Trading Nation" segment. "The ETF also has a heavy exposure in information technology and banks, accounting for about half of the portfolio."
The Chinese banking sector relies heavily on the yuan for stabilization, which has been steadily falling against the U.S. dollar.
"This ETF if very much an Asia emerging market portfolio and will trade more close to the Chinese market and outlook," she added.