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Kensho Stats

Here's who wins if the 10-year Treasury yield goes to 3 percent next

Traders in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index options pit at the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
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Traders in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index options pit at the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

With the 10-year Treasury yield trading above the key level of 2.5 percent, we studied which stocks, sectors and asset classes might do best if the 10-year yield continues its march to 3 percent in the first quarter of 2017. We looked to history for the answer.

Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we found that the 10-year yield climbed 50 basis points (0.5 percentage point) in three months 23 times in the last 30 years.

Here is the performance of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and the U.S. dollar during those periods of surging yields:


Here are the best performing stock sectors:


Here are the best performing Dow Jones industrial average members during those periods:



Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.