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Kensho Stats

This ETF has a perfect 'Santa Claus rally' track record

Santa Claus rally
Olivier Morin | AFP | Getty Images

The official "Santa Claus rally" period (according to various reputable market sources such as Mike Santoli and the Stock Trader's Almanac) is the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year.

Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we analyzed the last seven Santa Claus rally periods that have taken place during the current bull market to see if there were any patterns. Here's how ETFs tracking the S&P 500, gold, oil and Treasurys did during this period, on average.


The S&P 500 has proven the Santa maxim correct, averaging a small gain.

But the big winner is gold. Santa gave the SPDR Gold ETF, which tracks the price of the metal, a 1.5 percent gain the last seven periods on average, lifting the security into the green every single year.

Kriss Kringle has his work cut out for him this year as the GLD is down almost 12 percent since the election as investors dumped the safe haven and went all in on the high-growth, high-risk Trump trade.

If they decide to take some profits on that high-beta trade and hide out until 2017, gold could keep its perfect year-end record.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.