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Full-Trump effect likely to be an economic let down: Analysts

Jabin Botsford | The Washington Post via Getty Images

Investors have been over-confident to the point of complacency in the aftermath of Donald Trump's surprise election victory in November, a global economist told CNBC on Thursday.


The U.S. has witnessed one of the strongest post-election stock market rallies in history in the wake of Trump's election triumph. Much of the success in financial markets has been founded on investor optimism that Trump would stick to his promises and cut taxes, relax regulation and increase spending on infrastructure.

"We've been concerned about misplaced (investor) optimism and, to a degree, complacency about Trump's policies," Tim Cooper, global economist at BMI Research, told CNBC on Thursday.

"We don't see much of this limited stimulus coming in to play until 2018 and we think Trump is going to disappoint on the economy," he added.

President-elect Donald Trump held his first press conference in six months on Wednesday and faced questions which largely focused on his views regarding Russia, U.S. intelligence agencies and the future of his business.

Investors hoping for detailed plans on how Trump intends to deliver on his promises ahead of the Republican's inauguration on January 20 appear to have been disappointed.

"I think most folks would agree that 'full Trump' is actually quite detrimental to the U.S. economy," Maya Bhandari, multi asset fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle, told CNBC on Thursday.

"The year of maximum impact of 'full Trump' fiscal, immigration and trade is probably 2019 and, yes, you get a big boost from the fiscal policies in the short term… But the combination of the immigration rules that he's suggesting and the trade restrictions actually produce a net drag on U.S. GDP by 2019," she added.