The fact that folks this morning were asking "Why is the market down so much?" tells you one of the reasons the market was down. The recent blissed-out, slow-moving sideways pattern in the area of record index highs had a lulling effect. At the lows before noon, the Dow was off 184 points, not even 1 percent. The long-term average one-day move in the Dow since 1940 of 0.645 percent. So from yesterday's close of 19,954, the "average" move in the Dow would be 128 points. Clearly, the market has been far calmer in recent months – and even years – than this average dating back to World War II. But the point is, a downward move of this magnitude and with stocks having hovered at all-time record heights shouldn't seem extraordinary or in need of detailed explanation.
Here's what I'm watching heading into the closing bell: