First Solar is about to see some sunny days ahead, says one trader, who is attempting to triple his money by betting on the stock.
While the solar energy company saw a plunge in early November, after reporting a huge drop in revenue and slashing guidance, the stock has staged a bit of a comeback since then. And Andrew Keene of AlphaShark believes that a big rally is in the cards based on a previous trend.
The daily chart of First Solar shows that its 20-day moving average recently crossed above its 50-day moving average, which Keene considers a significant sign based on what happened to First Solar in October. The 20-day moving average had crossed the 50-day moving average then as well, and shares of First Solar rallied about $5 after the move.
The crossing of the daily moving averages and First Solar's 4 percent rally this week lead Keene to believe that the company's shares are starting to mirror the rally in October. That, and the stock seems to be performing well despite Thursday's market dip.
"With the market and the S&P selling off today very hard, we see First Solar holding up today very strong against a weak market," Keene said Thursday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "I think First Solar is going up to $40 by March."
This means that Keene believes First Solar could rally another 15 percent. As a result, he wants to buy the March 37.5-strike calls and sell the March 40-strike calls for 70 cents total per share. In order to make money on the trade, First Solar would have to close above the break-even point of $38.20 on March 17.
If First Solar closes above $40 on March 17, the trade would net him $2.50 per share, more than tripling the money he committed to the trade. On the other hand, if it remains below $37.50, that entire amount spent would be lost.
Unfortunately, not everyone is as bullish as Keene. Research analysts' most common rating is a hold, and the median target price is $33.38, implying that Wall Street thinks the stock is overvalued.