Kensho Stats

These defensive stocks beat the market when GDP disappoints

A cargo ship is loaded with shipping containers at the Port of Long Beach, Calif.
Harriet Taylor | CNBC
A cargo ship is loaded with shipping containers at the Port of Long Beach, Calif.

The first reading for fourth-quarter GDP missed the Street Friday, coming in at 1.9 percent growth vs. the 2.2 percent increase consensus estimate from economists. After this disappointing report, defensive stocks with bigger dividends should beat the market in the five days following the report, if history is any guide.

Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we found which market sectors and Dow Jones industrial average stocks performed the best a week after the GDP report missed the consensus estimate by 1 standard deviation.

Kensho found 21 occasions when GDP missed the consensus by 1 standard deviation. Here were the best performing sectors, on average, in the week after that disappointing report.




So investors get more defensive and hide out in stocks with bigger dividends and more stable revenues.

The best performing Dow members, on average, also generally reflect that defensive posturing one week after the report.



Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.