Trader buys bonds ahead of this market ‘warning sign’

A "warning sign" is starting to appear in the market amid new record highs for stocks, says Todd Gordon of, and two charts suggest that the rally may be fading.

Looking at a chart of the S&P 500-tracking ETF SPY and the dollar-tracking ETF UUP, Gordon says that it appears as though the two "have enjoyed somewhat of a positive correlation." In other words, the chart of SPY and UUP have moved together since late 2016, and Gordon believes that since UUP has fallen lately, the SPY, so stocks, may follow soon as well.

Second, Gordon takes a look at a chart of the SPY against the gold-tracking ETF GLD and long-term-Treasury-bond-tracking ETF TLT, saying that the recent rally in GLD and TLT could be pointing to two possibilities.

"It's either going to be a Fed that's going to be much more accommodative for much longer than we thought, and that's why we're seeing the dollar sell off with gold and bonds rallying," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "If in fact the Fed is prepared to go ahead and continue to raise rates, perhaps we're starting to see a run into the safety of gold and bonds out of the dollar because the stock market might not like the future interest rate increases."

Since Gordon believes that stocks are going to fall and a run into safety trades may be ahead, the trader wants to go long TLT. Gordon is looking to buy the March 3 120-strike calls and sell the March 3 123-strike calls for a total of $0.93.

This means that if TLT does close above $123 on March 3, Gordon could net a maximum reward of $207, more than doubling his money in the process. But Gordon stands to recapture the amount he's spending on the trade so long as the TLT closes above $120.93 on expiration day, which is less than 1 percent from the TLT's current levels.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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