Retail sales in 2017 are expected to grow roughly in line with last year's 3.8 percent gain, as rising wages, lower unemployment and a solid housing market drive consumer confidence higher.
However, with many tax and trade policies still up in the air under the Trump administration, consumers are expected to continue being methodical with their spending.
The National Retail Federation on Wednesday projected that industry sales will grow between 3.7 and 4.2 percent this year, excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants. That's roughly in line with the 3.8 percent increase in 2016, as reported by the NRF.
Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 8 percent and 12 percent.
The organization's forecast does not include potential legislation that could come from Washington, D.C., including the controversial border adjustment tax.
"We think that consumers will remain thoughtful, circumspect, [and] even a bit hesitant to spend until they really have more certainty about the strength of the economy" and government policies, NRF CEO Matt Shay said.
Yet with the economy on more solid footing and consumer confidence near 15-year highs, he added there's "great potential for this all to come together very positively."