OPEC mostly kept its members in line during the first month of coordinated production cuts, but the cartel faces a test of its will this spring.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in January managed to cut about 90 percent of the 1.2 million barrels it promised to remove from the market last year, according to S&P Global Platts and others that track shipments. Those efforts have helped stabilize global oil prices above $50 a barrel.
However, OPEC members have a long history of cheating on quotas. They are likely to flout the agreed-upon cuts as the summer driving season sends prices higher, said Victor Shum, who leads IHS Energy's oil market consulting practice in Asia.
"Output will likely increase. There's going to be a slippage in compliance," he told CNBC Asia's "Street Signs."
OPEC probably will extend the six-month deal if prices remain near or above current levels, Shum said. But if prices falter, "all bets are off" as oil exporters start pumping to boost government revenues.
"It'll be tougher for the Saudis and some of the other Gulf producers to hold production steady during the late spring and through the summer," he told CNBC in an email. "Other producers will be tempted to try and meet surging summer demand rather than hold the line and allow prices to increase."