Kensho Stats

As Target plunges, these retailers could be next

Customers at a Target store in Colma, Calif.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Customers at a Target store in Colma, Calif.

Target shares are plunging Tuesday after the discounter retailer warned its earnings will come in significantly below Wall Street expectations this year. What other stocks should investors steer clear of, using statistics as a guide?

"Our fourth quarter results reflect the impact of rapidly-changing consumer behavior, which drove very strong digital growth but unexpected softness in our stores," Target CEO Brian Cornell said in the earnings press release. "In addition, we will invest in lower gross margins to ensure we are clearly and competitively priced every day."

With Target management vowing lower prices, the coming price war is bound to have negative implications for other retailers.

Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, CNBC PRO searched for the stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest correlation to Target's share price during the last six months. Here is what we found.

Retailers dominated the list of Target-correlated companies as expected. But what's surprising is that dollar stores — Dollar Tree and Dollar General — are the most correlated with Target's fortunes.

History shows bad news for Target could be bad news for dollar stores.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.