While CBO projects the average 21 year old could expect a 20-25% decrease in their premiums, a 64-year-old would see their premiums go up 20-25%. This is because of a change in the law that would allow insurers to charge older customers more than they can under Obamacare.
But it gets much worse for these patients: Most people who get individual insurance through Obamacare receive subsidies and older customers would get less help under the House GOP plan. The bill would give people a fixed amount of help while Obamacare's subsidies rise according to their income and the price of insurance.
For a 64-year-old making $26,500 a year, the effects would be devastating: They would pay, on average, $1,700 total for health insurance under Obamacare in 2026, but $14,600 under the House bill.
On the other end, some higher-income seniors and younger customers would pay less for insurance than they do now.
As for lowering costs and deductibles, the CBO projects that "individuals' cost-sharing payments, including deductibles, in the nongroup market would tend to be higher" under the House bill.
The bill reduces premiums by allowing insurers to offer plans that cover fewer expenses. But it runs directly afoul of Trump's personal pledge just two months ago to lower deductibles.
The White House argues it can bring premiums down further by loosening regulations on what insurers have to provide, but that could face legal challenges and it's not clear how far the administration can go without further legislation.
"I'm not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I'm not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid" — Donald Trump, Daily Signal interview, 05/21/2015
Trump said in his speech announcing his run for president that he would "save Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security without cuts" and bragged on Twitter that he was the first Republican contender to make that pledge.
But the CBO found Trump would break his promise — by a mile.
Obamacare expanded Medicaid to cover about 11 million more people, but the House bill would reduce Medicaid spending by $880 billion by 2026, at which point it would spend a full 25% less than under current law. This would leave many people without coverage: 14 million Medicaid patients would fall off the rolls, according to the CBO projection.
This could have repercussions for another Trump promise to "give people struggling with addiction access to the help they need" which he made in a speech on the topic last October.
A number of lawmakers, including key Republicans, have expressed concern that cuts and changes to Medicaid could affect patients who receive substance abuse treatment through the program.