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Tracking the next move for energy


So far this year crude oil has fallen just more than ten percent.  Brent crude, just over nine percent.

Our data and analytics partner Kensho measured what happens to various energy sectors after energy falls five percent or more in the first quarter of a given year.  This has happened four times since 1990.  

Kensho shows that on average after a five percent or more drop for energy in Q1, the S&P Oil and Gas Equipment and Services Return surges 15 percent in the following quarter.  That sector includes companies like Halliburton, National Oilwell, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger.

The S&P Oil and Gas Drilling sector is up 12 percent in second quarters where we see a big drop in Q1.  That would include companies like Transocean and Helmerich & Payne.

After a big fall for energy...

The S&P 500 Energy Sector Total Return is up 11 percent.

The big loser in the sector after a big drop for energy in Q1 comes from the S and P 500 Oil and Gas Refining space which falls seven percent on average.  That sector includes stocks like Valero, Tesoro, Phillips 66 and Marathon.