×

This chart could hold the clue to the next big interest rate move

Bond traders at CME Group
Getty Images

With the decline in interest rates perplexing to some, it may be time to look at the charts for guidance.

Since the Fed raised rates on March 15, the 10-year yield has done nothing but go down.

It fell from 2.62 percent March 14, to a low of 2.31 percent early Tuesday. The Fed clearly has more influence over short-end interest rates, but all rates might be expected to move higher across the curve, or at least hold steady, with the Fed in hiking mode.

Strategists say the 10-year has been trading in a range, with the potential to break higher — above 2.63 — if Washington makes progress on pro-growth policies, or very strong economic data. The 10-year could also dip below its current range, 2.30 percent, on signs of more gridlock in Congress or weaker economic reports.