Kathleen Smith thinks Dropbox and Spotify have the best chance of going public by the end of the year. Dropbox has reportedly lined up banks for a possible IPO, and CEO Drew Houston told Bloomberg in April that the company has hit certain revenue and profit milestones that further clear the way for it to go public. Spotify has said it's been exploring an unconventional plan to go public, and CNBC reported Friday morning that it is pursuing a direct listing on the NYSE for 2018, forgoing a traditional IPO.
Airbnb, which is reportedly profitable, is expected to go public in 2018. And Lyft may file before its larger rival, Uber, which is facing PR headaches plus a Department of Justice investigation. Lyft also has a partnership with, and investment from, GM to help drive its next leg of growth.
One problem for Disruptor IPOs: Performance
The Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) that tracks recent IPOs is up 18 percent year-to-date, driven in large part by Shopify, a company from the inaugural 2013 Disruptor 50 list whose stock is up more than 115 percent year-to-date and almost 250 percent over the past 12 months. But Shopify is quite an outlier; the track record of Disruptor 50 IPOs is mixed.
While Snap and Twilio both had big, celebrated IPOs, their stocks have been struggling. Snap soared out of the gate before sinking on concerns about competition from Facebook and then plummeting on a disappointing first earnings report. While Twilio also rallied, nearly doubling on its first day of trading last June, the stock started to drop last fall on concerns about slowing growth. Then it plummeted after its most recent earnings report on news that it's losing a chunk of its business from Uber.