OPEC will roll over production cuts on Thursday, an admission that an initial six months of output reductions were not enough to balance the market.
The policy has failed to shrink global crude oil stockpiles to OPEC's target level, despite high compliance with a landmark deal with 11 non-OPEC members to remove about 1.8 million barrels a day from the market. The effort has been undermined by resurgent U.S. production, weak fuel demand and robust OPEC exports.
Now, oil market watchers are focused on the potential for the extension to finish the job — and what could go wrong.
OPEC has the wind at its back. Fuel demand is ramping up ahead of summer, when Americans take to the road for vacation and Saudi Arabia burns crude oil to meet electricity needs during the sweltering season.
"The important thing to consider here is that the world uses about 2 million barrels per day more oil in the second half of the year than the first half of the year, so if you're ever going to impact supply-demand, the second half of the year is the time to do that," Jacques Rousseau, managing director at research firm Clearview Energy Partners, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" earlier this week.