Trading Nation

The S&P 500 just did something that has meant gains 100 percent of the time

Share
VIDEO3:5203:52
Digging into a stock market oddity

The has repeated a trend that suggests stocks will see a solid end to the year.

According to technical analyst Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial, every time the index has been up more than 7.5 percent in the first 100 trading days of the year, it has never closed the year lower than from where it began that year. It achieved this on April 4.

The trend has proved true in all 23 years Detrick has studied the trend, suggesting that the S&P will likely end the year above 2,250, where it started 2017.

Other market participants find additional reasons for believing the trend will hold.

"I think there is tremendous support at 2,290 and 2,300," iiTrader's chief market strategist, Bill Baruch, said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." Below that, "we have the 200-day moving average at 2,250."

"At that point, if we get into the end of the year I think the market will edge up as it always as," added Baruch. "For that reason, I do not think this streak will break, and even if the market finishes lower than this, we will be above 2,300."

Taking a different perspective entirely, Erin Gibbs, chief equity investment officer at S&P Global, says the fundamentals are likely to drive the S&P higher by year's end.

"We've still got double-digit earnings growth for 2017 as expected, and [earnings growth projections have] even risen for 2018," said Gibbs.

Still, both Baruch and Gibbs predict that volatility could rise in the coming months. The CBOE Volatility Index has remained below its long-term average levels all years, and Baruch sees the VIX rising during the summer, noting that it has in prior years.

The S&P 500 opened Tuesday morning just shy of the closing record high it hit Friday.