Strange market action could point to June swoon: Art Cashin

  • Recent stock market gains could be on the verge of vanishing, according to UBS' Art Cashin.
  • "June is a very funny month," Cashin says.

Recent stock market gains could be on the verge of vanishing, in part because "June is a very funny month," according to UBS' Art Cashin.

"We talk about sell in May. That didn't work in May to begin with. June is a difficult month to get real big gains," Cashin said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

The math shows June is indeed the worst month for stocks.

According to the latest data from Bespoke Investment Group, June has been a down month for the Dow 60 percent of the time over the past 20 years, with the negative returns ramping up in 2001.

During the past half century, the Dow has fallen in June more than half of the time, according to Bespoke.

Cashin, UBS' head of floor operations and a fixture at the New York Stock Exchange since 1964, says he's detecting ominous activity that could indicate pain ahead. He says stocks rising and bond yields falling is concerning.

"That's a real dichotomy, particularly with a pretty heavily discounted Federal Reserve hike coming up in about a week," Cashin said. Fed policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cashin said bond yields could be moving down due to signs that the economy isn't as robust as anticipated, and he pointed to mounting jitters that economic growth could fall back below 2 percent.

A scenario like that could alter the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, and Wall Street doesn't like surprises.

"There are some people that think that yield on the 10-year [bond] could slip below the 2 percent level again, and that would certainly get everyone's attention," he said.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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