A top analyst says only one thing matters for Apple's stock right now: China

Key Points
  • UBS sets Apple's price target at $170, bullish on iPhone 8 sales in China.
  • By the end of fiscal year 2017, UBS estimates one-third of the Chinese iPhones will be over two years old, suggesting a big upgrade could be due
  • Apple, though nearly flat over the past three months, is up by 26 percent since the year began.
An Apple store in Hangzhou, China.
Zhang Peng | LightRocket | Getty Images

UBS top analyst Steven Milunovich has pinned Apple success to its sales in China. Optimistic about iPhone 8 sales, Milunovich raised Apple's price target to $170 and encouraged investors to buy thanks to the iPhone's estimated 15 percent unit growth in China.

A Monday report from UBS models a 30 percent recovery in Chinese iPhone unit sales during fiscal year 2018 following two years of 20 percent unit declines in the Asian country.

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