This chart could determine whether gains last through the end of the summer

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Investors certainly have reason to be bullish at this juncture.

Technology stocks saw a boost last week, the Dow Jones transportation average flashed a classic "buy" theory as it rose to an all-time high and the S&P 500 had a nice pop Friday.

But investors ought to keep an eye on the S&P 500's 50-day moving average for a clue as to the market's next move. The S&P 500 dipped below the moving average twice last week before bouncing above it in Monday trading. But it has got to hold above this moving average to confirm further gains.

Even with this bounce atop the 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 did indeed break below its trend line from November on Thursday. Sure, this "break" was only a very slight one, and its bounce on Friday took it right back up to that line. So we'll be watching for whether the S&P 500 can regain that line and rally further.

S&P 500 6-month chart with 50-day moving average

Source: FactSet

We'll also be watching to see whether the XLK technology ETF and the Nasdaq 100 can regain their respective trend lines from November, as well as their 50-day moving averages. If they can achieve that, it will certainly be positive for the broader market over the near term. The XLK, for example, dipped below this moving average in late June and has been unable to rally back above.

In the intermediate term, now that global central banks have communicated that they're going to be providing less liquidity going forward, we are going to have to see an improvement in the fundamentals. This, in turn, makes the upcoming earnings season more important than ever — especially since President Donald Trump's proposals continue to struggle. Speaking of earnings, things really get going Friday with quarterly reports from several key banks. So we'll see how that plays out.

On a longer-term basis, less liquidity is going to create a headwind for the stock market, so company guidance must also be on investors' radars even more so than it typically is.


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Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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