Oil hasn't traded above $70 a barrel in nearly three years, but that could soon change.
RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft says there's a very high probability Venezuela's state oil company will default and bring about a steep jump in crude prices.
"I think that's going to be the biggest geopolitical story to watch in the oil markets," said Croft, who's the firm's global head of commodity strategy, on Tuesday's "Trading Nation." "The question is how fast does Venezuela fail?"
According to Croft, it could be the catalyst to push oil prices to $70 to $80 a barrel by fall.
It has been years since crude has traded above the $70 a barrel mark. It hasn't happened since near the end of 2014. On Tuesday, oil settled down 2 percent at $49.16 a barrel.
"The thing is Venezuela has no capacity to overproduce at this point. Their oil production is going in one direction and that is down," she said.
The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Venezuela, one of the world's top crude producers, on Monday as political turmoil continued to cause chaos and the country runs out of cash.
"The national oil company owes $3.5 billion due in October-November. They are unlikely to make those payments," Croft added. "Venezuela has less than $10 billion now in reserves, and then have $5 billion in debt payments coming due this year. ... We really do think a disorderly default is on the cards for Venezuela."