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Trump’s stumbles don’t automatically benefit Democrats

For die-hard Trump supporters, there is no reprieve. The president's achievements are eclipsed by the consistency of his bad judgment. For those Trump fans that have not tuned out the news entirely, a cottage industry of reassuring hot takes has taken the place of dispassionate analysis.

In the name of challenging the conventional wisdom, the Wall Street Journal's James Freeman took a peek at this emerging trend. "Could Trump possibly be winning this week?" his article's subhead asked. The premise sounds absurd on its face, but it's really only phrased inelegantly. Trump most assuredly did not "win" the week that followed the traumatic events in Virginia. Nor, though, did the president's Democratic opponents.

Freeman's desire to check in with a few "contrarian observers" is a noble one. The individuals he chose are a testament either to the paucity of contrarianism or the absurdity of contrarian arguments.

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Don Luskin, the CIO of Trend Macrolytics, speculated that Americans succumbed last week to a "clinical case of mass hysteria." He suggested the consternation over Donald Trump's devouring 96 hours of news by issuing three distinct and occasionally contradictory pronouncements about the relative virtue of white supremacist marchers versus violent socialist counter protesters was a media fabrication. "His sin is that he has failed to express his outrage at the event in a particular way," Luskin wrote, "or, more precisely, that he has expressed it in a way that doesn't kowtow to the identity politics lobby."

While Luskin is handing out psychological diagnoses, he might do well to look up the definition of dissociation. Yes, Trump got himself into hot water by declining to condemn avowed racists and anti-Semites without caveat following a murderous terrorist attack (only to backtrack amid pressure and then to backtrack from the backtrack). In doing so, he wasn't rejecting identity politics but embracing it.

"Trump has persuaded himself right into history as the most unpopular president at this point in his presidency in the history of modern polling."

In Trump's estimation, a variety of foreign forces was responsible for the lot of the silent but angry majority: illegal immigrant labor, Chinese trade practices, America's allies who should be expected to pay for the privileges of the U.S.-led world order, Europeans that sacrifice Western culture upon the altar of multiculturalism, etc. Trump wasn't abandoning this white identity politics last week; he was reaffirming fealty to it.

Freeman's second contrarian is a predictable one. The cartoonist Scott Adams has found a second career in reflexively ascribing brilliance and foresight to every presidential synapse. On Thursday of last week, Trump reacted on Twitter to an ongoing terrorist attack in Spain by alluding to the utterly apocryphal story of General John Pershing's crimes of war. The story—one Trump knows is false because it was attacked as false when he used to tell it on the campaign trail—alleges that the American war hero discouraged Islamist terrorism in the Philippines by burying Muslims with the bodies of pigs so they might find no peace in the afterlife.

You might not be surprised to learn that Adams thinks this is yet anothermasterful example of public persuasion. You see, Trump is communicating his toughness on terrorism. By lying, he will compel media to fact-check him, amplifying his persuasive persuasion.

Trump has persuaded himself right into history as the most unpopular president at this point in his presidency in the history of modern polling. There's no honest way to claim a week that resulted in the broadest critical reaction among Trump's Republican allies since the release of the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape was a great week for the president. Even if Trump spent a week skipping through a minefield, though, that doesn't mean his opponents' fortunes were advanced.

An online poll commissioned by Axios found that a "remarkable" 40 percent of adults signed on to Trump's assertion that both demonstrators on the left and the right were responsible for the violence in events in Charlottesville. They see members of the academy defend political violence, even as liberals pen hallucinatory love letters to themselves congratulating their movement on its restraint. They've watched with apprehension as an agitated mob tears down a statue of a nondescript Confederate soldier in North Carolina as though it were a likeness of Felix Dzerzhinsky.

They watch as liberal commentators call for an end to the veneration of figures like Washington and Jefferson, just as Trump said they would and (have been doing for years), even as coastal elites insist that no one advocates such things. On Monday, Baltimore awoke to see a 200-year-old monument to Christopher Columbus destroyed by a vandal with a sledgehammer. They know that this is not some isolated event but an extension of the madness they've seen take hold of the country, even amid lectures about how connecting these dots is woefully unenlightened.

"The people asking these questions (over and over and over) are not racist," wrote Senator Ben Sasse. "Rather they're perplexed by the elite indifference to their fair questions." Liberals dismiss these sentiments at their peril. Despite a Republican president's unpopularity and the dysfunction of his party in Congress, Democrats have so far been unable to capitalize on the environment. Even by its own modest standards for success, the Democratic National Committee's fundraising has been bleak. On Thursday, Cook Political Report shifted the race for Senate in four Democrat-held states in the GOP's direction.

Attributing Donald Trump's wink and nod in the direction of white supremacy last week to strategic genius is simply deluded. That does not, however, suggest that Democrats are benefiting from Trump's recklessness. Liberals have given the public no assurances that they can govern from the center, or that they even see that as a desirable enterprise. And yet, Democrats still appear convinced they are the default beneficiaries when Trump falls on his face, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

Commentary by Noah Rothman, associate editor at Commentary Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @NoahCRothman.

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