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The Wells Fargo Investment Institute doesn't expect the to rise more than 2 percent over the next 15 months, according to the firm's 2018 year-end outlook released Thursday.
While some Wall Street strategists have included 2018 S&P targets in their equities notes, the Wells Fargo note marks the first major outlook report for next year.
Wells Fargo gave a range of 2,450 to 2,550 for the S&P next year, a decline of 2.3 percent or a rise of nearly 1.7 percent from Wednesday's record close of 2,508.24. The S&P 500 also hit an intraday high Wednesday of 2,508.85.
"The synchronized global recovery that took hold in 2017 should gain in 2018, though restrained by ongoing global headwinds from high debt, slow labor recoveries overseas and political uncertainties around the world," Wells Fargo's global investment strategy team wrote in a Monday note that was distributed to the media Thursday.
"We also anticipate that earnings gains will fuel moderately higher U.S. and international equity markets," the report said. The strategists added that since the U.S. economy is likely in the "final third" of expansion, investors must be particularly aware of risks.
In late August, the Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2017 year-end target range by 70 points to 2,300 to 2,400. At the time, the increase still forecast, at best, a roughly 1 percent decline for the S&P.
Among 15 strategists surveyed by CNBC last year, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Scott Wren came the closest to predicting where the S&P would end the year, albeit at a range. The middle of his target range was 2,240, and the S&P ended 2016 at 2,238.83.
— CNBC's Tom Franck contributed to this report.
Correction: This story has been updated to reflect the S&P 500 hit an intraday high Wednesday.