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Tesla car population will triple by end of 2019, says Morgan Stanley

  • The number of Tesla cars on roads is expected to rapidly increase.
  • It is the highest expected growth rate for a single auto company in generations.
  • Tesla's charging infrastructure will be put to the test.

Tesla cars are set to be a far more common sight on roads around the world, says Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

The total number of Tesla vehicles out in the wild will grow by about 100 times through the year 2040, which has implications for investors and poses some potential challenges for Tesla's service and charging infrastructure, Jonas said in a research note sent Tuesday.

The global on-road population of Tesla vehicles will reach nearly 300,000 units by the end of this year and, rise nearly 80 percent to 531,000 the following year, Jonas said.

By early 2023, Jonas estimates Tesla's car population will multiply 10 times compared with 2017's expected year-end figure.

By 2040, he forecasts that number to be nearly 32 million units.

"It has been generations since the investment community witnessed such a high growth rate in the population of a single auto firm," Jonas said.

Of course, all this means that Tesla's charging and service infrastructures will be put to the test. Tesla has been aggressively expanding both to meet demand.

Some customers have complained in the past of various problems with some of Tesla's service stations, particularly stations run by contractors. There have also been some cases of overcrowding and rude behavior at some Tesla Supercharger stations.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the company will address the problem.

Tesla announced earlier this year that it is doubling the global number of Superchargers in 2017, and recently opened its first "city center" supercharger stations in the downtown areas of Chicago and Boston.

However, the expansion will also allow Tesla to collect a staggering amount of data from its fleet on the road. Jonas forecasts the company will have about 100 million miles per day of data by 2023 or 2024, which could position the company well to compete in the emerging areas of autonomous driving and mobility services.

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