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For the first nine months of his administration, observers have had occasion to wonder — and wonder, and wonder, and wonder — how exactly Donald Trump would manage to handle a real crisis imposed by external events rather than his own impulsiveness. The answer is now apparent in the blackened streets of San Juan and the villages of interior Puerto Rico that, more than a week after Hurricane Maria struck, remain without access to food or clean water.
To an extent, the United States of America held up surprisingly well from Inauguration Day until September 20 or so. The ongoing degradation of American civic institutions, at a minimum, did not have an immediate negative impact on the typical person's life.
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But the world is beginning to draw a straight line from the devastation in Puerto Rico to the White House. Trump's instinct so far is to turn the island's devastation into another front in culture war politics, a strategy that could help his own political career survive.
The rest of us will just have to pray for good luck.
Hurricanes Harvey and Irene were massive cable television events that dominated coverage on all the networks. MSNBC went so all-in on storm news that they sent Chris Hayes out in a windbreaker to stand around in the wind in Naples, Florida.
But as Dhrumil Mehta has shown at FiveThirtyEight, Maria was relatively invisible on cable.
"People on TV news shows spoke significantly fewer sentences about Hurricane Maria than about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma," he writes, and "the spike in conversation about Puerto Rico right as the hurricane hit was also much smaller than the spike in mentions of Texas and Florida."
Cable producers surely had their reasons for this. But something anyone in the media could tell you is that cable producers' news judgment is not an infallible guide to the substantive importance of various stories. In particular, a broad range of issues — potentially including natural disasters in outlying US territories — have an asymmetrical quality to them, where if handled appropriately most people won't care that much, but if botched it eventually becomes a big deal.
This is why traditionally presidents have relied upon staff and the massive information-gathering capabilities of the American government for information rather than letting television set the agenda. Trump has a different philosophy, however, and spent the post-storm Saturday glued to his television and letting the hosts of Fox & Friends drag him into an ill-advised Twitter spat with NFL stars.
Because Trump wasn't paying attention, the situation evolved into a catastrophe. And because the situation evolved into a catastrophe, it eventually ended up on television.
The Washington Post reports that by Monday, Trump "was becoming frustrated by the coverage he was seeing on TV."
Now that Trump's inadequate response to Maria's devastation has become a big issue, the Trump administration is full of excuses for why their response was so inadequate:
This is all true and it goes to show that being president of the United States is a difficult job. But none of the issues the federal response is wrestling with were unknown in advance. The world had days of warning that a hurricane was heading toward Puerto Rico. The perilous state of the island's electrical grid has been apparent for years — as has the weak financial health of its electrical utility and municipal governments.
A president who was focused on his job could have asked in advance what the plan was for a hurricane strike on Puerto Rico. He would have discovered that since Puerto Rico is part of the United States, FEMA is the default lead agency but it's the US military that has the ships and helicopters that would be needed to get supplies into the interior of a wrecked island. And he could have worked something out. Instead, he didn't get worked up about Puerto Rico until more than a week after the storm hit when he saw the mayor of San Juan lambasting him on television. He lashed out with his usual playbook — one that will only make things worse.
The substantive problem that Trump — and America — is now facing is that you can't go back in time and do the preparatory work that should have been done. You can't preposition satellite phones, schedule timely visits from top administration officials, or quickly dispatch ships and helicopters once you're starting with an eight-day lag. The best you can do is admit you were too slow and throw everything you've got at it.
But admitting wrongdoing isn't part of Trump's playbook.
Defensiveness and counterpunching is.
Many people will see more than a hint of racism here in the implication that Puerto Ricans are too lazy to help themselves.
And the specter of Trump once again being called a racist by liberals will once again help rally to his side the large segment of the white population which believes that anti-white discrimination is a big problem in the United States. Trump, meanwhile, portrays criticism of him, personally, as criticism of heroic soldiers and first responders.
Trump doesn't know much about governing. But he is very good at channeling every discussion into the same handful of culture war tropes. Shifting the discussion in this direction rather than adopting a tone of humility will, of course, only make substantive recovery more difficult by polarizing the topic in Congress and among the public.
Retired Gen. John Kelly's background and experience are unusual for a White House chief of staff, but as it happens his final military assignment was as commander of American military forces in South America, Central America, and the Caribbean basin — basically perfect preparation for the crisis that happens to have struck.
It's of course entirely possible that things would be going even worse if Reince Priebus were still in charge, but on its face Kelly's experience does not seem to be doing any good. And that should be a stake through the heart of the notion that some stable of "adults in the room" are going to save the country from having picked a spectacularly inappropriate choice to serve as chief executive.
The one thing we can say for sure is that it's essentially inconceivable that the nextobjectively difficult crisis that Trump fumbles will be more in Kelly's wheelhouse than a disaster requiring a military response in the Caribbean. We're witnessing the Trump administration at peak performance and it's appalling. Bismarck supposedly said that God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America. If we're lucky he'll be proven right, and nothing much else bad will happen for the next three years. If not, buckle your seat belts.
Commentary by Matthew Yglesias, a writer at Vox. Follow him on Twitter .
For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.