Why the market rally could soon have an earnings problem

Earnings season is ramping up this week, with several big banks set to report. But some analysts are looking past third-quarter results and ahead to what 2018 will bring.

Earnings and revenue growth will both likely slow down next year, ushered in by falling oil and gas prices and lower expectations for global growth, forecasts Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors.

The oil and gas complex has contributed "substantially" to growth this year, Morganlander said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." But it will begin proving more of a "drag" to the market overall heading into 2018, he said, as he anticipates oil and gas prices will falter.

Many strategists over the last year have pointed to a synchronized recovery across economies globally, ultimately giving stocks a boost. Global growth expectations will likely "have to be revised lower" next year, Morganlander said.

"That will also be an anchor to driving expectations lower," he said.

Analysts are expecting earnings growth of 10.5 percent and revenue growth of 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018, according to FactSet estimates. This reflects a modest decline in earnings growth quarter over quarter and a slight incline for revenue growth expectations over the same time period.

More granularly, the energy and materials sectors in the S&P 500 are expected to see the highest earnings growth for the 2018 calendar year, while the information technology and energy sectors, respectively, are expected to see the highest revenue growth in the same time.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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