(Updates with additional context on production growth, Vitol comments, data)
LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. shale industry will see another wave of investment as producers are betting strongly against a fall in oil prices, the chief executive of Total said on Wednesday.
Patrick Pouyanne, speaking at the Oil & Money conference in London, said he expected global oil demand to grow strongly again this year, by up to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd).
"Our U.S. colleagues are hedging like mad at $56 a barrel so we will see another wave of investment in U.S. shale, no doubt about it," Pouyanne said.
Ian Taylor, chief executive of Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, echoed that view at the conference on Wednesday, saying he sees Brent crude falling to $45 a barrel in the next year as U.S. output surges.
U.S. production has grown at a slower rate than had been estimated earlier in the year by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as producers focused on "greater capital discipline," analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said earlier this month.
U.S. crude production for 2017 is up by 467,000 barrels a day through July, according to the EIA, which in the late spring forecast 2017 output growth to come to 680,000 bpd. That prediction has since fallen to 380,000 bpd. However, the surge in hedging may allow producers to keep drilling even if oil pulls back from its recent rally, boosting production next year.
A sharp fall in investment since oil prices collapsed in 2014 has led to a drop in development of new projects, which could spark an oil supply shortage after 2020, Pouyanne said.
He said the rate of final investment decisions (FIDs) in exploration and production had shrunk too much since 2015.
"The number of FIDs from 2010-2014 averaged 35 FIDs per year ... to add potentially 2.5 million bpd," he said.
"Since 2015, it's 12 per year ... to add 1 million bpd that's probably not enough. Post-2020, we will face an issue with these lower numbers of FIDs ... it takes time to bring new capacity to production."
He later said Total expects to give a green light by the year-end for the development of the Libra offshore field in Brazil, which will produce up to 150,000 bpd.
On the OPEC side, the oil chief sees Russia and Saudi Arabia extending production cuts.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and several non-OPEC producers agreed late last year on a six-month output-cutting deal from January to tackle a global glut. The deal has been extended until March 2018.
A visit by the Saudi king to Moscow recently "is a clear signal (that) it is in the interest of both countries to support the market ... I will not be surprised to see the extension," Pouyanne said. (Reporting by Ron Bousso and Julia Payne; Editing by Dale Hudson/Mark Heinrich)