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Long-time market bull Art Hogan lists his top 5 risks to the rally – and the odds they could crush stocks

Longtime bull Art Hogan is out with a new list that details five scenarios that could cause stocks to pull back 5 percent or more.

The Wunderlich chief market strategist's top risk is third quarter earnings, and next week is vital. It'll be the busiest week of the season with nearly 200 companies reporting.

"Earnings is a clear and present danger because we're in that season right now. Obviously things are going fine. We had that great first and second quarter earnings," Hogan said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "But the third quarter is going to have a lot of noise around the hurricane effect, and stocks are clearly priced for perfection."

Janet Yellen failing to get reappointed to a second term as chair of the Federal Reserve could also emerge as a negative for stocks, according to Hogan.

President Donald Trump, who has accused Yellen of being overly political, is scheduled to interview her on Thursday. Yellen's term ends in February.

"I think the most probable is we make a mistake in which Fed chair we choose," he said. "We're at an interesting pivot point where we have to carefully unwind something that got wound up over the last eight years, which was quantitative easing. ... You could have somebody who's a lot more reactionary."

A China trade war and North Korea are also among Hogan's top risks.

"Everything else is sort of protectionist," he said. "We need China to help with North Korea. North Korea in and of itself is probably out there, and it's always going to be out there as a geopolitical concern."

He's also concerned about the North American Free Trade Agreement's future. The U.S., Canada and Mexico will try to rework the trade deal next year. Trump has threatened to scrap it if revisions aren't made.

"Walking away from NAFTA and not finding some common ground would be a huge problem," warned Hogan.

Despite the potential scenarios, Hogan believes the odds are low they will crush stocks longer term. He has a 2,600 year-end price target on the S&P 500 — an anemic 1.5 percent gain from current levels.

"I'm still bullish. I think there are a lot of things going right, and the biggest of those things is the global economy is growing," Hogan said. "This is the first time we've had a synchronized global economy that's going in the same direction since 2007. All developed countries are in expansion. I think that's very positive."

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