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CEE MARKETS-Forint weakens on policy easing risk as central bank meets

* Hungarian central bank meets, unlikely to change rates

* Some market participants see policy easing risk, forint weakens

BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The forint led an easing of Central European currencies against the euro on Tuesday on some expectations that the Hungarian central bank (NBH) may cut its overnight deposit rate further at its meeting later in the day. Hungarian markets reopened after Monday's national holiday. "There are some outlier forecasts that there will be a further rate cut," one Budapest-based trader said. "Also, Moody's did not improve the (Hungarian debt rating) outlook on Friday despite some expectations." The forint and the zloty eased 0.2-0.3 percent against the euro by 0839 GMT. Only 1 out of 12 analysts projected a cut in the Hungarian overnight deposit rate in a Reuters poll last week, and analysts in the survey agreed that the base rate would not change either. The base rate, which is also the 3-month deposit rate, has lost most of its significance this year as the NBH has limited the funds that commercial banks can keep in the deposits. Liquidity management through fx swap tenders has become more significant. A surprise cut in the overnight deposit rate delivered last month has pushed interbank interest rates lower. Most analysts said the NBH would not announce further easing, waiting for the European Central Bank's Thursday meeting. A shift towards more hawkish ECB policy could weaken Central European currencies and bonds, making them relatively less attractive and pointing to increased inflation risks in Europe. "We expect the EURPLN rate to decline towards the technical support of 4.20 (from 4.2355) in the rest of the week. We hope that a dovish statement from the ECB will strengthen the flow of capital into CEE markets," ING bank Slaski said in a note. The Czech central bank (CNB), worried over a rise in inflation, already lifted its rates in August. The crown eased 0.1 percent to 25.675 against the euro on Tuesday. Expectations for further CNB hikes keep it close to the 4-year highs reached on Monday, setting aside any immediate concern that billionaire Andrej Babis' ANO party, which won last weekend's election, may run into trouble in its search for coalition partners. The Romanian leu eased slightly, but stayed on the firm side of 4.6 against the euro, with market participants convinced "of the central bank's determination to curb leu weakening beyond 4.60/euro," ING analysts said in a note. In stock markets, the shares of O2 firmed 3.3 percent, after the Czech telecoms firm reported higher than expected third-quarter profits. State-controlled Polish banks Pekao and Alior shed 3.6 and 2.7 percent, respectively, after saying that they were considering cooperation or a merger.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSH AT 1039 CET

OT CURRENCIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

bid close change in

2017

Czech crown 25.663 25.646 -0.07% 5.24% 0 0 Hungary 308.50 308.02 -0.16% 0.10% forint 00 00 Polish zloty 4.2355 4.2231 -0.29% 3.98% Romanian leu 4.5985 4.5967 -0.04% -1.38% Croatian 7.5085 7.5065 -0.03% 0.62%

kuna

Serbian 119.38 119.27 -0.09% 3.33% dinar 00 00 Note: daily calculated previo close 1800 change from us at CET

STOCKS

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2017

Prague 1051.7 1048.2 +0.33 +14.1 4 5 % 2% Budapest 39085. 39132. -0.12% +22.1 10 62 3% Warsaw 2463.5 2473.4 -0.40% +26.4 0 2 7% Bucharest 7893.7 7900.5 -0.09% +11.4 7 8 1% Ljubljana 803.35 803.93 -0.07% +11.9

5%

Zagreb 1845.8 1849.4 -0.19% -7.47% 5 4 Belgrade 728.46 728.25 +0.03 +1.55 % % Sofia 665.72 667.48 -0.26% +13.5

2% BONDS

Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread

Republic

2-year 0.332 0.106 +104b +9bps

ps

5-year 0.746 0 +101b -3bps

ps

10-year 1.635 -0.046 +117b -7bps

ps Poland

2-year 1.685 0.011 +239b -1bps

ps

5-year 2.688 0.012 +295b -1bps

ps

10-year 3.383 0.008 +292b -2bps

ps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interb ank

Czech Rep <PR 0.85 0.99 1.12 0

IBOR=>

Hungary <BU 0.07 0.1 0.15 0.03

BOR=>

Poland <WI 1.79 1.85 1.902 1.73

BOR=>

Note: FRA are for ask quotes prices ******************************************************** *****

(Additional reporting by Radu Marinas in Bucharest and Marcin Goettig in Warsaw Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)