CEE MARKETS-Crown hits 4-year high as Czech central bank seen hiking rates

* Crown up as investors mull odds of 25 or 50 bps rate hike

* Hungary, Polish PMIs show growth, currencies track EUR/USD

* Budapest stocks hit record high on pre-earnings MOL gains

* Kuna trades at weakest level since January

BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The crown hit a new four-year high against the euro as some investors bet for a bigger-than-consensus interest rate hike by the Czech central bank (CNB) on Thursday. The crown hit its strongest level since October 2013 at 25.543 against the euro. At 0927 GMT, it traded at 25.551, firmer by 0.1 percent from Wednesday. "I think there could be a test of 25.500 before the CNB decision (due at 1200 GMT)," one Prague-based dealer said. While most analysts count on the bank lifting rates by a standard 25 basis points, some central bankers have talked about a bigger step, leading many investors to bet on a 50 basis point hike. "I would say it is 50/50," a second dealer said. The crown was also supported by economic data showing healthy growth in economic output, similar to other economies in Central Europe. October figures released on Wednesday showed a jump in the Czech PMI manufacturing sentiment index to 58.5, the highest in more than six years. The surplus in the state budget rose to this year's high. The Czech economy is seen remaining robust even though the election winner ANO may need to form a minority government after being shunned by other parties. While the CNB needs to fight inflation, which is above its 2 percent target, the key risk to the crown is how the central bank will manage rate hike expectations, analysts have said. Hungary and Poland released October PMI figures on Thursday which still indicated economic growth, though at a slightly slower pace than in September. The forint and the zloty gave up some of their early gains as the dollar firmed slightly. Polish government bond yields rose by a few basis points, mirroring a similar rise in euro zone markets and because the government announced a relatively high primary supply for the rest of the year on Tuesday. "Apart from one regular auction, we will still have two switch tenders this year, without an upper supply limit, so they may be quite large," one Warsaw-based dealer said. Equities were mixed. Budapest's main index rose 1.5 percent, boosted by an almost 3 percent rise in the shares of oil group MOL which analysts expect to report good third-quarter earnings on Friday. The kuna was still the weakest against the euro since mid-January as the end of the tourism season cut foreign currency revenues and banks needed to increase hard currency provisions related to indebted food group Agrokor's crisis.



Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2017 Czech crown <EURCZK= 25.5510 25.5735 +0.09% 5.70% > Hungary <EURHUF= 310.7600 310.8350 +0.02% -0.62% forint > Polish zloty <EURPLN= 4.2345 4.2376 +0.07% 4.00% > Romanian leu <EURRON= 4.5999 4.6030 +0.07% -1.41% > Croatian kuna <EURHRK= 7.5325 7.5215 -0.15% 0.30% > Serbian dinar <EURRSD= 118.8500 118.9200 +0.06% 3.79% > Note: daily calculat previous close at 1800 CET change ed from


Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2017 Prague 1066.86 1067.71 -0.08% +15.76% Budapest 40220.33 39611.64 +1.54% +25.68% Warsaw 2517.94 2524.90 -0.28% +29.26% Bucharest 7837.64 7790.33 +0.61% +10.62% Ljubljana <.SBITOP 795.41 796.92 -0.19% +10.84% > Zagreb 1867.91 1874.49 -0.35% -6.36% Belgrade <.BELEX1 729.79 732.12 -0.32% +1.73%


Sofia 666.25 670.90 -0.69% +13.61%


Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread


2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.408 0.125 +116bps +12bps


5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.681 -0.036 +102bps -5bps


10-year <CZ10YT= 1.559 -0.01 +117bps -3bps

RR> Poland

2-year <PL2YT=R 1.63 0.017 +238bps +2bps


5-year <PL5YT=R 2.729 0.082 +307bps +7bps


10-year <PL10YT= 3.49 0.046 +311bps +3bps


FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep 0.92 1.05 1.24 0



Hungary 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.03 Poland 1.785 1.845 1.935 1.73 Note: FRA are for quotes ask



(Additional reporting by Bartosz Chmielewski in Warsaw and Igor Ilic in Zagreb; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)