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Market-moving quant who predicted rally sees 5 percent upside if tax reform is passed

Key Points
  • JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, whose latest notes have spurred market moves, said the stock market is underpricing the probability of tax reform passing.
  • Historical trends for November and December suggest that the market should drift higher going into 2018 anyway, Kolanovic said.
  • Only a few factors mainly tied to central banks could derail this thesis, Kolanovic told CNBC.
The man who moves markets now sees this

Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's quantitative and derivative strategist, told CNBC on Wednesday that the stock market wasn't fully baking in the possibility of tax reform.

"We think [the] market is underpricing the probability of tax reform," Kolanovic said on "Fast Money."

Expanding on a Wednesday note released to JPMorgan clients, Kolanovic said that "movements on tax reform" by Congress could garner a 5 percent gain for the stock market.

That 5 percent would come primarily from tax reform's additive effect on earnings, said Kolanovic, whose notes have spurred market moves in the past.

"The question is, once tax reform happens, where do we go from there?" he mused.

Historically, markets tend to drift higher and gain some momentum in November and December, Kolanovic said. But given the market's unusually low rate of volatility, many U.S. investors, both individual and institutional, are already highly invested in equities, according to the quant's note.

"I think investors are a little bit on one side of the boat," Kolanovic said, adding that while this would prevent major upside, there is still upside to be had.

The only things that Kolanovic said could derail his bullish thesis would be aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which seems unlikely for the risk-averse central bank; Europe or Japan's central banks tampering drastically with liquidity levels, or increases in volatility.