— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on October 9, Monday.
Welcome to CNBC Business Daily. I'm Qian Chen.
If the White House decertifies the Iran deal, RBC Capital Markets is warning investors that oil prices could jump.
Helima Croft, the firm's global head of commodity strategy, is watching very closely for next Thursday, October 12. That's the day when President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a key speech on Iran policy.
There's speculation that Trump will move to unravel the international deal, signed under President Barack Obama, that curbs Iran's nuclear program.
Croft pointed out that the market will have the biggest concerns over two perspectives. No.1 is if the sanction would require importing countries to make significant reductions in their Iranian crude imports. And No.2 is the US would bar foreign firms from investing in the Iranian upstream sector.
Proved oil reserves in Iran, according to its government, rank fourth largest in the world. This is roughly 10% of the world's total proven petroleum reserves.
By the end of last year, data provided by International Energy Agency, Iran's oil fields produce about 3% of global production -- raising from 2.9 million barrels per day before June last year to about 3.6 million barrels per day.
A National Iran Oil Company official told CNBC in September that the country is now exporting about 2.2 million barrels a day.
That's after a year after U.N. economic sanctions were lifted last year. And apparently, fresh sanctions could put demand in a delicate situation.
It is believed by many economists that investment opportunities in various economic sectors would help Iran to potentially attract more than $3.5 trillion worth of investments over the next two decades.
Meanwhile, a study carried out by global consultancy firm McKinsey in 2016 had predicted a $1 trillion increase in Iran's output over the next 20 years, translating into a 1% growth for the world economy.
However, all these positive predictions could be all empty talks if the US were to impose financial santions back to Iran.
Now, on Thursday, if Trump declines to certify Iran's compliance, U.S. congressional leaders would have 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Tehran suspended under the agreement.
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.