UPDATE 1-Analyst ups Ukraine 2018 wheat, barley crop, export forecast

(Quotes, details, tables) KIEV, March 6 (Reuters) - Analyst UkrAgroConsult on Tuesday raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2018 wheat crop by 4.8 percent to 26.3 million tonnes mostly due to a larger harvested area. The consultancy said in a statement the higher output would allow the country to export 17 million tonnes of wheat in the 2018/19 crop season. This year, Ukraine is likely to harvest 6.4 million hectares of wheat with the average yield of 4.11 tonnes per hectare, the consultancy said. In 2017 Ukraine harvested wheat from the area of 6.2 million hectares while the yield was at 4.21 tonnes per hectare. "Ukrainian winter cereals are in the best condition in four years. And, since the winter of 2017/18 was quite mild in terms of both temperature and precipitation, loss rates in winter cereals are likely to be low," UkrAgroConsult said. "In particular, we expect that, at most, 1 percent of winter wheat will be lost." UkrAgroConsult said that a larger barley harvested area was the main reason for a higher crop and export outlook this year. Farmers are likely to sow 2.7 million hectares of barley this year and could harvest 2.67 million hectares, with an average yield of 3.26 tonnes. Last year, Ukraine harvested 2.5 million hectares of barley with the yield of 3.32 tonnes. "Based on our forecast of a 6.5-7 percent rise in Ukrainian plantings of barley - to 2.7 million hectares, its production may amount to some 8.6-8.8 million tonnes in 2018. So, Ukraines export potential may reach 5 million tonnes in 2018/19," the consultancy said.


2018/19 2017/18 open stocks (tonnes) 1,203,000 1,061,000 area harvested (ha) 6,400,000 6,300,000 yield (t/ha) 4.11 4.17 harvest (tonnes) 26,300,000 26,100,000 exports (tonnes) 17,000,000 16,500,000 demand (tonnes) 26,500,000 25,960,000 ending stocks 1,005,000 1,203,000


2018/19 2017/18 open stocks (tonnes) 436,000 359,000 area harvested (ha) 2,670,000 2,500,000 yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.32 harvest (tonnes) 8,700,000 8,300,000 exports (tonnes) 5,000,000 4,500,000 demand (tonnes) 8,760,000 8,225,000 ending stocks 378,000 436,000


(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Louise Heavens)