Toys R Us could soon liquidate its U.S. operations and the result will leave a lasting impact on the toy industry, Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink wrote in a note to investors Friday.
While Toys R Us accounted for 15 to 20 percent of U.S. toy sales last year, not all of that will shift to other retailers when the retailer is gone. Instead, about 10 to 15 percent of this volume will fall through the cracks and be lost for good.
Wissink estimates between 85 and 90 percent of Toys R Us' volume in the second half of the year would be redistributed. Products will shift and be sold by e-commerce sites such as Amazon, big-box stores such as Target or Walmart and drug and grocery stores. Other retailers such as Kohl's, J.C. Penney and Best Buy may clear more shelf space for toys.
"It's difficult to estimate, but based on third party consultancy surveys of consumer visits to TRU, roughly 10 to 15 percent of purchases are estimated to be incidental and may not transfer to other channels," Wissink wrote.