In the spring of 1943, the director of the first centralized U.S. intelligence agency, Colonel William "Wild Bill" Donovan, sought help in understanding Hitler. Donovan wanted to give President Franklin D. Roosevelt a sense of "the things that make him tick."
Donovan called Walter C. Langer, a psychoanalyst helping with the war effort, in for a meeting, and asked: "What do you make of Hitler? If Hitler is running the show, what kind of a person is he? What are his ambitions?"
Langer combined the scant intelligence on Hitler with insights from Freudian psychoanalysis into a study on Hitler. He accurately predicted that Hitler would commit suicide rather than be captured by Allied forces. But his insight was largely irrelevant to the military strategy for defeating Germany. The report took so long to produce that the war was nearly over by the time it was delivered to Donovan.
Iraq's President Saddam Hussein, on left, meets with leading members of his government in August 2002. Reuters
More recently, the former top U.N. weapons inspector Charles Duelfer and I studied what made former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein tick. For several years, Duelfer was the senior point of contact between Iraq and the U.S. After the regime fell, he produced the definitive report on its weapon program.
Looking for logic in Saddam's decisions, we found instead a morass of idiosyncratic thinking. Most astonishing was his misreading of President George W. Bush's June 2002 speech to the West Point Military Academy. Intending to warn Saddam that he must comply with U.N. demands or face war, Bush struck a stern tone. The "gravest danger to freedom," he said, was "unbalanced dictators with weapons of mass destruction." Later in the speech, Bush praised President Ronald Reagan for standing up to "the brutality of tyrants."
What Bush said and what Saddam heard were two very different things.
Saddam did not see himself as unbalanced, and he knew that he did not have weapons of mass destruction. And U.S.-Iraq relations had been excellent under President Reagan, Saddam recalled. The United States had tilted toward his side during the Iran-Iraq war. Things started to deteriorate only under the Bushes, in his view.
Our analysis showed that Saddam believed Bush could not have been talking about him. Instead, Saddam concluded he must have been threatening North Korea, not Iraq. Kim Jong Il, father of Kim Jong Un, possessed the nuclear weapons that the Iraqi president desired but did not have.
Bush was dumbfounded by the lack of Saddam's response to his threats. Later he asked, "How much clearer could I have been?"
Duelfer and I had the academic luxury of malleable deadlines in studying Saddam. Langer spent many months on his Hitler study. Scholarship on Kim Jong Un may be too slow for the current crisis.
Major American decision-makers may instead need to rely on their intuition.