Goldman: Tesla shares to drop more than 30 percent in the next 6 months on weak Model 3 deliveries

  • Goldman analyst David Tamberrino reaffirms his sell rating for Tesla shares, predicting Model 3 deliveries will come in below expectations.
  • "We continue to expect a slow ramp for the Model 3," he writes.
  • The analyst reiterated his $205 six-month price target for Telsa shares, representing 36 percent downside to Friday's close.

Tesla's troubles manufacturing the Model 3 are far from over, according to a top Wall Street firm.

Goldman analyst David Tamberrino reaffirmed his sell rating for Tesla shares, predicting Model 3 deliveries will come in below expectations.

"We believe the company is tracking below its 2018 Model S/X guidance of approx. 100k units (an implied 25,000 per quarter). Further, while monthly Model 3 deliveries are showing sequential improvement, we estimate that they will fall well short of consensus expectations," Tamberrino wrote in a note to clients Monday. "We continue to expect a slow ramp for the Model 3, and maintain our Sell rating as we expect shares to de-rate as targets are potentially pushed further out."

Tesla shares declined 2.4 percent Monday.

Tamberrino reaffirmed his first-quarter Model 3 delivery estimate of 7,000 versus the Wall Street average of 13,800 after his analysis of vehicle registration data.

"We maintain that the Model 3 ramp will be below company expectations (albeit improved from Model S/X ramps), and note that incremental production issues may continue to appear as the company looks to ramp mass manufacturing along the chassis, body, and final assembly lines," he wrote.

The analyst reiterated his $205 six-month price target for Telsa shares, representing 36 percent downside to Friday's close.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.