There’s not enough panic in the market to make me bullish, says Wall Street veteran

Fear is back, but Wall Street needs even more panic before stocks are attractively valued, according to strategist Jim Paulsen.

"If the panic progresses here (we see more evidence behaviorally of people buying assets that they typically do when they're really panicked and dumping other assets), then I think we're setting ourselves up for a really good buying opportunity," Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

With inflation on the rise and interest rates hovering at four-year highs, company earnings need to catch up to stock valuation before the riskier asset class can keep moving higher, says Paulsen.

These sell-offs, he explains, are not reason for concern but rather a healthy move for a market in transition.

"This is just a year where we're trying to find a new valuation level, I think, for the equity market that can withstand and sustain at a little higher inflation and a little higher yields than what we've got right now," he said.

Paulsen says 17 times trailing earnings on the S&P 500 would be a more reasonable level for the market. Analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipate combined S&P 500 earnings to rise by 19 percent to $157 a share.

"If earnings keep going up this year and we come in around $150-$160 earnings for the year, … then we're going to be pretty close, at this market level today, to 17 times earnings by the end of this year," Paulsen said.

The S&P 500's current 19.9 multiple is down from nearly 22 times earnings at the beginning of the year. The index hit a 23.5 times multiple at its 52-week peak on Jan. 26.

For earnings to catch up to valuation, Paulsen foresees one of two scenarios playing out.

"We could take care of this valuation problem with a quick swift correction which could result in even more panic than we've seen so far," he said. "Or, we could just trade up and down and go nowhere the rest of this year while earnings continue to grow and then maybe toward the end of this year we have a much more attractively priced market for 2019."

The markets are already showing signs of panic selling. Paulsen is on the lookout for typical panic plays, such as a move away from aggressive names in technology, a preference for safe-haven precious metals over industrial metals, and a pickup in defensives over cyclicals.

Paulsen expects the S&P 500 to close out the year around 2,600, its curret level. That would provide a solid setup for the rally to resume next year, he adds.

"The market will be adjusted and more prepared to sustain a rally again in 2019," Paulsen said.

A target around 2,600 represents a nearly 3 percent decline for 2018.

Vote to see results
Total Votes:

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.


Trades to Watch

Trader Bios


Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

Read more