'Take your money and run.' Investor David Tice warns on 'pretty dangerous' stock market

The investor known for running a bear fund suggests a stock market crash may be virtually unavoidable — citing Federal Reserve Policy and geopolitical risks.

In a note to CNBC, David Tice wrote that investors should "take your money and run."

"You guys have enjoyed the party," he said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "There are a lot of people dancing. But I think that could be pretty dangerous. I'd say the last couple of 10 percent declines were a sign that the band is about ready to go home."

Tice has viewed the February correction as a foreshock — predicting stocks could lose 20 to 25 percent of their value by year's end.

"All this volatility with the VIX [Cboe volatility index] having doubled is very, very disturbing," said Tice. "We're testing 200-day moving averages on some of the hot stocks like Google and Facebook."

Tice, who sold his Prudent Bear Fund to Federated Investors in 2008 just as the financial crisis was unfolding, wasn't in the bear camp much of last year. On "Trading Nation" last July, he urged investors not to bet against stocks.

"I was actually bullish because I was thinking we'd have a melt-up," he said.

But nowadays, Tice says he's very worried about the trade wars and Syria. He also cites President Donald Trump's rhetoric toward Russia as an additional source of anxiety.

In a tweet Wednesday, Trump wrote "Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!'" But on Thursday, he tweeted that a U.S. missile strike on Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons may not be imminent.

Tice also sees rising interest rates putting the economy under pressure.

"You have a Fed that is raising rates," he noted. "We have a Fed chairman who really doesn't care about we've had two 10 percent declines both in February and then March/April. Those are not great signs."

According to Tice, Fed rate hike cycles historically lead to recessions and deep market declines. He says this time is no different because the market is very overvalued.

He reiterates that investors should consider buying gold.

"In this kind of environment with geopolitical uncertainty and trade uncertainty, you've got to be in gold," Tice said.

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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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