— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on April 10, Tuesday.
The reason why the United States sanctions against Russia triggered the global aluminum price volatility is that the current sanctions list includes Rusal. The company is the second largest aluminum company in the world, producing approximately 3.7 million tons of aluminum in 2017, which accounts for approximately 7% of global production. At the same time, the company stated that its exports to the United States accounted for more than 10% of its output. Therefore, the sanctions from the United States make the aluminum supply prospects uncertain and may cause the supply market shrink. What this immediately reflects in the market is the jump in aluminum prices on futures.
The Rusal's stock price also slumped on Monday. The share of Rusal, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, fell more than 50% in the week. The market value dropped to HK$35.5 billion.
The company stated that sanctions from the United States may cause the company to make technical defaults on some credits, and have a huge negative impact on the company's business and prospects. Rusal also stated that the company's annual report may also be postponed
At present, the sanctions decision from the United States has caused traders thronged to buy aluminum futures, the huge risk may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand. In the last trading day, aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange reached close to 5%, it's the biggest one-day gain since Nov, 2011.
Rusal also produces 11.5 million tons of alumina each year, which accounts for about 7% of the world's total output, and bauxite production accounts for about 4% of the world's total. The current situation of market supply and demand is that almost all the alumina supplies of high-tech industry in Europe is facing huge pressure, Europe is the largest client of the Russian aluminum, then is the Asia client. Therefore, the sanctions faced by the Russian aluminum industry may make the supply and demand imbalance, making the alumina price further increased.
We also concern the new round of US sanctions against Russia may seriously threaten Russia's current weak economy. Russia recently recovered from the economic downturn and achieved GDP growth. The sanctions imposed by the United States have increased concerns among investors in the market, and may bring pressure to energy and banking industry. We will keep an eye on this issue.